Property markets move quickly — figures below are a point-in-time snapshot (Q2 2026) and may have moved since publication. Always check the original source linked at the bottom of this report for the latest figures.

The headline numbers

  • National dwelling values fell 0.4% in June 2026 — the steepest monthly decline in three and a half years — but remain 7.3% higher than a year earlier (Cotality Home Value Index).
  • The national median dwelling value sits around $920,000–$930,000; the combined capital cities median has crossed $1 million for the first time on record.
  • Sydney and Melbourne are leading the current downturn, both down roughly 0.8–1.2% over the month and sitting a few percent below their late-2025 cyclical highs.
  • Perth and Darwin recorded the strongest monthly gains through mid-2026 (around 1.5%), with Brisbane, Adelaide and Hobart also still rising, though more slowly than earlier in the cycle.

Why the slowdown

Three forces are cooling the market at once: the RBA lifted the cash rate three times in the first half of 2026 (to 4.35%), tightening borrowing capacity across the board; the May 2026 Federal Budget abolished negative gearing on newly-purchased established properties (from 1 July 2027) and replaced the 50% CGT discount with cost base indexation, cooling investor demand for existing homes; and auction clearance rates have sat below 50% since late May 2026, alongside capital city sales volumes down around 16% year-on-year.

The two-speed market continues

Despite the national cooling, the gap between cities remains wide. Over the past decade, Brisbane (+120.2%) and Adelaide (+111.9%) have delivered the strongest capital growth among the major capitals, well ahead of Sydney (+57.5%). Perth has been the standout performer over the past five years specifically (+91.4%), reflecting a later-starting but sharper growth cycle tied to the resources sector and interstate migration. Melbourne has been the softest-performing eastern capital over the same period.

What forecasters expect for the rest of 2026

Major bank forecasts are notably conservative compared with the growth seen in 2024–2025: CBA and Westpac are both forecasting around 5% national growth for calendar 2026, NAB around 5.4%, with most expecting Sydney and Melbourne to underperform the mid-sized capitals again. Most economists don't expect the RBA to begin cutting rates before mid-2027.

Sources

  • Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) Home Value Index
  • PropTrack Home Price Index
  • RBA Cash Rate Target
  • ABS Residential Property Price Indexes

Related: 10-Year Growth Report · Rental Market Report